Playoff talk and a Cubs-Dodgers NLDS Preview
I went to the Cubs Rally today in Daley Plaza, and I couldn't be more excited that the playoffs are finally starting. Unlike the last few times the Cubs have made the playoffs, the Cubs are the universal pick to win their first series (against the Dodgers.) Best record in the NL, best run differential in baseball, best OBP, best BA, 2nd best ERA, most strikeouts... It's clear that the Cubs are the best team in the NL. But oh, there's this:
"My s*** doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f****** luck." - A's GM Billy Beane
The playoffs are a complete crapshoot. What happened over the last six months means precisely d*ck once the playoffs start. Eight teams. First one to win 11 games are the champs. You have a slight advantage with better players, of course. Better pitching especially. But the beauty of baseball is any team can sweep any team. Exhibit A thru Q in this argument is the 2006 Cardinals. Obviously NOT the best team in baseball; probably not even in the top 8 teams. But they snuck in and got hot in October and that's all there is to it.
The best way to determine the best team in baseball is to go back to the way things were in the 1960s. Take the best team from the AL and the best team from the NL and have them meet in the World Series. The best teams are the teams with the best record over a 162 game season. Top two teams meet, and you'll never have an un-worthy champion. Well, let me rephrase. Every team that wins the World Series deserves their trophy. I guess I'm just re-iterating the fact that the best team doesn't always win. In fact, since the wild card started in 1995, the team with the best record in baseball won the World Series exactly once. The 1998 Yankees. A better record doesn't even guarantee that you'll win a single series. Since 1995, in all matchups, the team with the better record won only 49% of the time. The team with the better run differential won 56% of the time. So yeah, crapshoot. (I got these numbers from Baseball Prospectus)
Do I want to go back to the way it was in the old days? Heck, no. Without the new format, this would be the first Cubs postseason appearance since 1989. No game 163 in 1998, no Bartman in 2003, no division series sweep in 2007. They barely would have contended into September during any of those seasons. So I like the new format. It gives fans across the country a rooting interest in baseball into October. And the more times you make it to the show, the more chances you have to win it all.
Anyways, let's talk about this series. The Dodgers have a pretty good team. They finished the season only a handful of games over .500, but that doesn't tell the true story of their season. Once they acquired Manny and got stooges Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones out of the lineup, they went on an absolute tear. Their starting pitching really stepped up, their young hitters started to produce more consistently, and their bullpen solidified. They may have only won 84 games, but they've been playing like a 95-win team since the All-Star break. So despite the Cubs being "better across the board", this series is closer than it looks.
I think its all going to come down to the Cubs starting pitching. If the Cubs starters can throw seven innings, this series should be won by the Cubs. After that, Marmol is lights out and Wood is solid enough. I'm pretty sure that Dempster and Lilly are up to the task of throwing seven innings. Harden? Usually not but he's clearly got ace talent and is certainly capable. Then there's Big Z. Who knows what the Cubs will get out of him. A "former Cub" told Tim Kurkijan that Biz Z freaks out in big games, that he can't even handle the pressure of Opening Day. I'm curious as to who this former Cub is. Pre-2007, this was a fair assessment. Since then, he's been great in the spotlight. Playoffs last year, 6 shutout innings (before being foolishly lifted by Lou.) Opening Day this year, stellar matchup with Ben Sheets. All-Star game, two scoreless innings. First start in September after arm problems and the Cubs had been scuffling - no-hitter. Z doesn't struggle in big games - he struggles in less-meaningful ones. If Z's on, this Series will be done in four.
As for the Dodgers pitching, it's been really good of late, but on the whole I don't think any of these guys is markedly better than Ted Lilly. They've got decent numbers...in a pitcher's park....in a lousy division. They certainly have a deeper bullpen, though, and that's where the Cubs scare me most. They've got nothin' after Marmol and Wood. I can't believe Howry made the postseason roster. He's f*cking awful. Two out of every three appearances, he gives up run. Every appearance, he gets hit hard. He pitches, Cubs lose that game. Mark it down. I'd have gone with Weurtz, who has at least had three or four good outings this month. I wouldn't exactly be excited about seeing Weurtz pitch, but I at least would have a shred of hope that he might not give up three runs.
Anyways, back to the happy thoughts. Home field advantage is huge for the Cubs. The wind will probably be blowing in, which unlike years past has become a real advantage for the Cubs. They're far more patient than the Dusty years, and they keep pitchers in the stretch and working hard all day. Eventually, someone will come through with a big hit. That's the Cubs mantra and it will serve them right here. Cubs in 4.
P.S. Congrats to the Sox. I'm sincerely excited to see to Chicago baseball teams play in October. I can't even fathom a World Series matchup.